Evidence For And Against Climate Change Environmental Sciences Essay

Evidence For And Against clime transmute environmental Sciences EssayClimate spay is a very contr all all oversial globular subject which has committed supporters and detractors. Critically evaluate the evidence for and against clime swop and provide your own assessment of the current and future risks that the planet faces by 2050.It is expected that you give give a broad view of your put in giving weight to policy, regulatory, economic and risk management impacts as wholesome as health and environmental impacts. Use a case hire to illustrate a key component of the mode flip agenda.The worlds humour is changing and the consequences are serious, wide ranging and long. Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus that this is happening, the issue of humor qualifying has its detractors, whose opposition to the phenomenon range from disagreeing about the period of the problem, the extent of mans influence, to the accuracy of the modeling techniques. During the essay t he evidence from both sides will be evaluated and the current and longer term economic, social, and environmental effects assessed.The definitions of climate change vary greatly, but the both just about useful are the fall in Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) definition where slackly speaking climate change relates to a change in climate which is attributed, moderately or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the spherical atmosphere and that is in addition to rude(a) climate variability sight over comparable age periods and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity, which is by chance a more(prenominal) useful definition.Firstly before looking at the evidence for climate change it is useful to belowstand the world(prenominal) strength flow (radiative budget), which was first suggested by Kiehl and T renbirth (1997), illustrated in picture 1 at a lower placePicture 1The incoming solar actin otherapy, often labelled in percentage terms, must match the outgoing short and longwave radiation to get to radiative equilibrium. Radiative forcing is the measure of the influence that a specific factor has in fixture the balance of this incoming and outgoing energy, and is therefore a useful indication of the importance of that factor to change the climate. Positive forcing will generally toy with that the surface of the earth is warmed, whilst negative forcing tends to cool the surface.The Kyoto protocol, adopted in declination 1997 and entering into force in February 2005, committed all Annex1 countries (39 industrialised countries the EU) to a reduction in four babys room gases (Carbon dioxide, Methane, Nitrous oxide and Sulfur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) (often found in refridgerants) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) (also in refridgerants but having a wide novelty of medical and non-medical uses and according to Askam, Khalil et al. (2003) having a lifetime up to 50,000 years).Carbon dioxide is perchance the most studied and well known of the anthropogenic GHGs. Since some infra-red radiation leaving the planet is absorbed by CO2, the greater the CO2 the greater the absorbtion and reflection of heat and the warmer the climate.Perhaps the most significant index finger of the enlarge in the direct of CO2 in the last 50 years is shown in graph 1 below. This is the measurement of CO2 concentrations as measured in Hawaii, far from industrial areas so no localised bias is present, though these measurements have been replicated around the world (e.g. Pieter P. Tans and Thomas J. Conway 1968-2002) periodic Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratios from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics science laboratory Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1968-2002. NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, U.S.A.)Graph 1Image created by Robert A. Rohde / www.globalwarmingart.comSimilar measurements have been found in ice core samples, which enable us to get a much better picture over time. Graph 2 below shows the CO2 variations over time from the yesteryear 420,000 years.Graph 2Image created by Robert A. Rohde / www.globalwarmingart.comThis shows the CO2 levels fluctuating in line with the ice-ages, however, the most important section is the insert the marked ontogeny since the industrial revolution from around 1750/1800. A clear indication of manhood influence.More evidence is given in the IPCC 4th Annual composing Working Group summary that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has increase from 280ppm (pre-industrial level) to 379ppm in 2005. In addition the annual CO2 concentration reaping was larger during the last 10 years (1995-2005 1.9ppm per year) than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements (1960-2005 1.4 ppm per year).In a similar fashion the levels of Methane (from a pre-industrial level of 715ppb to 1732ppb in the early 1990s and 1774ppb in 2005) and Nitrous oxide (from pre-industrial levels of round 270ppb to 319ppb in 2005) have increased markedly over recent years.Looking at the radiative forcing discussed earlier theThere are many different indications of how the climate has altered, and over several different timescales ranging from the most recent 150 years since 1860, since roughly the time of industrial revolution since 1750 and for the past 10-100 thousand years. Each of these will be looked at in turn.The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report in 2007 stated warm up of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and ascent global average sea level.Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since th e mid-20th century is very potential due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the TARs conclusion that most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is credibly to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. discernable human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patternsThe time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature book from 1850 to 2009. The year 2009 was the sixth warmest on platter, exceeded by 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, and 2004. This time series is being compiled jointly by the Climatic look into Unit and the UK Met. Office Hadley Centre. The record is being continually up-dated and improved (see Brohan et al., 2006). This paper includes a new and more thorough assessment of errors, recognizing that these differ on annual and decadal timescales. Increased c oncentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities are most likely the underlying cause of warming in the 20th century.Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones, 2006 Un induction estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes a new entropyset from 1850. J. Geophysical Research 111, D12106, doi10.1029/2005JD006548http//www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/DetractorsIn a debate that has become highly polarised the label climate sceptic is readily slapped on anybody who stands on the tree stump and contradicts Al Gore. In reality, the sceptic landscape is more varied, ranging from those scurrilously act scientific truth to others with more obvious economic or governmental gains to play for.Richard Lindzen, an American atmospheric physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of technology has been one of the most vocal in expressing concerns over the validity of electronic computer models used to predict future climate change. He ar gues that they may be over-predicting future warming due to a failure to properly estimate for the climate systems water vapour feedback. However he has also been an diligent contributor to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports.Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies commented that Lindzen agrees with about 90 per cent of what other climate scientists are saying, yet the last 10 per cent is sufficiently different to label him a contrarian.Stephen McIntyre, editor of sceptic blog ClimateAudit and antecedent director of several state-owned Canadian mineral exploration companies, is known in the climate science community for his continual demands for raw info.McIntryre was behind an orchestrate campaign that led to 60 Freedom of Information requests being do to CRU scientists at the University of East Anglia in a single weekend in July.However, while potentially vexatious, McIntyre has made genuine scientific contributi ons, notably spy a mistake in NASA data that led to the average US temperatures to be reduced about 0.15C for the period 2000-2006.Philip Stott, an emeritus professor of biogeography at the University of London (although not a published climate scientist), has publicly argued that the climate is also complex and chaotic a system to make long-term predictions on.None of these scientists are climate change deniers, but they question the certainty of the scientific consensus.Several Tory MPs have recently contradicted the Green bourgeois line of the Cameron era.Peter Lilley, one of only three MPs to balloting against the governments Climate Change Bill in October, has accused climatologists of an unconscious combination in which a dogmatic determination to conform to a consensus driven by the incentive of public funding has made them happier to let the data fit the theory rather than the opposite.David Davis has also spoken out on what he describes as a ferocious determination to impose hair shirt policies on the public. Taxes on holiday flights and noisy wind turbines are too high a price to pay, he suggests. Both MPs arrogate to be open to the possibility that man has significantly contributing to climate change, but both remain unconvinced by the evidence.Former Tory premier Nigel Lawson, has also publicly stepped up his opposition to environmental policy, founding the appreciate cooler, the Global Warming Policy Foundation, complete with a board of evenhandedly distinguished academics to provide scepticism with a respectable face. However, the think tank was this week accused by scientists of seeming to misrepresent scientific data on its website.At the far end of the spectrum, figures such as Sarah Palin appear to be happy to disregard scientific evidence wholesale in favour of economic gain.Despite substantial differences in outlook, bundled together under the sceptic brand, the views of these individuals appear to be increasingly gaining favour w ith the public in the lead up to Copenhagen.PLANFor climate changeAgainst climate changeCase studyAssessment of current risksAssessment of future risks to 2050